Five-Year Evolution of Regional Seismicity and Total Shear Strain to GNSS Data in Connection With the Kamchatka Megathrust Earthquake of 2025
Dokukin P. A.1, Kaftan V. I.2, Titkov N. N.3, Chebrov D. V.3
1 RUDN University, Moscow, Russia
2 Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
3 Кamchatka branch of Geophysical Survey of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Кamchatsky, Russia
Abstract
A spatiotemporal analysis of total shear strain was conducted using a continuous regional GNSS network of twenty-two stations over the five years preceding the Kamchatka megathrust earthquake. The presented synoptic animation demonstrates the consistent behavior of seismicity and total shear strain over the five years preceding the strongest earthquake. Coordinate solutions for stations located on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the nearest islands, which are part of the regional KAMNET network, were provided by researchers from the Kamchatka Branch of the Unified Geophysical Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Coordinate data for the remaining stations in Russia, Japan, and the USA were obtained from the web archive of the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (Reno, USA) [Blewitt et al., 2018]. The time series of GNSS station coordinates begins on January 1, 2020, and ends immediately after the Kamchatka megaquake of July 30, 2025, with an M8.8 magnitude. A total shear anomaly began to form two years after the initial observation period in the south of the region. It is likely caused by pressure from the Pacific Plate. Relatively higher seismicity was observed here at the time, as evidenced by the accumulation of earthquake epicenters. A year later, a new anomaly began to accumulate near Bering Island. Here, the GNSS station is subject to the most rapid horizontal motion. Until the occurrence of the megathrust earthquake, both anomalies increased to 1.5×10-6. After the occurrence of the strongest event, these areas merged. This behavior suggests the possibility of a two-side triggering action of these anomalies on a mature seismic source, as for example in [Kaftan & Melnikov, 2019]. The video clearly demonstrates the existence of a deformation gap precisely in the area of the future seismic rupture.
Database creation date: 2025; Publication date: December 2025
Contributor:
Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Institution: Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Publisher: Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (GC RAS), Moscow, Russia (http://www.gcras.ru/eng/)
Data format: .mp4 (M4V File Format)
Citation: Dokukin P. A., Kaftan V. I., Titkov N. N., Chebrov D. V. (2025) Five-Year Evolution of Regional Seismicity and Total Shear Strain to GNSS Data in Connection With the Kamchatka Megathrust Earthquake of 2025, GCRAS, Moscow, https://doi.org/10.2205/esdb-kamchatka-tss-2025
References:
- Blewitt G., Hammond W. C., Kreemer C. Harnessing the GPS data explosion for interdisciplinary science // Eos. 2018. V.99. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EO104623
- Kaftan V., Melnikov A. (2019) Migration of Earth Surface Deformation as a Large Earthquake Trigger / In: Kocharyan G., Lyakhov A. (eds) Trigger Effects in Geosystems. Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Cham, pp.71-78 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31970-0_8
License: 
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
URL for downloading: http://esdb.wdcb.ru/doi/2025/esdb-kamchatka-tss-2025/esdb-kamchatka-tss-2025.mp4
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